My Jazz Confidence Methods:
At the bottom of each Jazz game recap i'll do what i'm calling a "Jazz Confidence Percentage." This is pretty much what it sounds like, its just how confident i am with the Jazz up to that point in the season. So here's a couple of factors for my confidence. I don't claim this to be any kind of accurate measure of anything really... its just mostly personal opinion mixed with a few stats.
1. Season record.
2. Record last 10 games.
3. Margins of victory.
4. How certain key players are playing, including injuries and such.
5. Any factors that would affect the team's ability to win in the future, good or bad.
6. If i feel especially good or bad about the team, i'll just give more or less percentage.
7. Other team's records, last 10, and so on.
More or less what percentages mean:
100% - If my Jazz confidence percentage is this then that pretty much means I feel like the Jazz have the very best chance of anyone in the League to win the Championship. Not only that they have the best chance, but according to the factors from above, i feel like they will win the Championship. Not necessarily that i would bet my life on it, but i'd be very confident if i put 100%.
75% - This means that i feel that the Jazz have a better chance than most other playoff teams to get to the NBA Finals. This doesn't include teams who don't make the playoffs. For example, if there are 8 playoff teams for the West, obviously only 1 team will go to the Finals from the West. A 75% would mean that they are in the top 4 teams in the conference..
50% - This would be more at the bottom part of the playoff picture. There could be teams less than 50 to make the playoffs, but the chances of making it out of the 1st round would not be good at all at 50 or less.
25% - This would not be a team in contention for a playoff spot. If the conference was bad a 25 team could be close but probably would not make the playoffs. 25 and under are teams that are at the bottom of the standings. Teams just would get worse all the way down to a 0 (maybe be the Nets lets say).
So thats what this percentage crap will be all about. I'll try not to do it immediately after a great win or really bad loss so its not too much affected by just the most recent game, even though that can definitely be a factor.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA Team Ratings Method:
Each week i do a ranking on all NBA teams that is sort of like a "power ranking" in a way. More or less it is the likelihood of each team to win the title. The higher the rank the more likely i feel they are of winning it all. So here's the numbers and junk that go into those ratings.
- Expected Winning Percentage: A formula that is designed to relate a team's points scored and points allowed to its win-loss record.
- Record in team's last 10 games.
- Margin of victory over the season.
- Efficiency Recap Difference: Efficiency Recap - Opponent's Efficiency Recap (See Efficiency Recap formula below).
- Team's standings in their respective conference and team's rank among all other NBA teams in the above statistics.
- Efficiency Recap = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field goals attempts - Field goals made) + (Free throws attempts - Free throws made) + Turnovers))
- The Expected win percentage is a mix of a team's record and how well a team plays against the other teams in the league. Both of those are pretty important in winning a championship.
- How well a team has done in the last 10 games is a good indicator of where a team is heading in the future.
- Obviously if you are winning games by 20, thats better than winning games by 1, and you have a much greater chance of winning more games when you are up by 20 rather than 1.
- This efficiency recap difference is a seriously crazy accurate. Take the Jazz for example, when their efficiency recap is greater than their opponent's efficiency recap, they are 40-0. When they are less than their opponent, they are 2-23. (To this point in the season). Pretty much the greater the difference in a team's efficiency and their opponent's efficiency they are just going to win alot more and go farther in the post-season.
- Standings matter for playoff matchups and home court etc.
